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The future of religion cannot be separated from the future of culture. 

Questions about the future of religion cannot be separated from those about the future of culture (where culture means basic human ‘software’/operating system – not just high culture/the arts). Three factors will be important in shaping culture and religion in the next decades:

 

1. How much states regulate and influence culture and religion (eg through religious governance, education, national media etc) versus a ‘freemarket’ in culture (which actually involves more influence by large global corporations).

 

A likely scenario: US freemarket/religious freedom model is increasingly resisted. But culture/religion becomes increasingly hard to regulate ‘from above’.

 

2. Who are the dominant cultural players and paradigms. Wealthy and powerful religious and cultural institutions include the ancient (e.g. the Roman Catholic Church), modern (e.g. Walt Disney, science/modern universities) and recent (e.g. WeChat, Facebook).  But barriers to entry are low for religion and culture and so new entrants are frequent and sometimes successful – ‘popular culture’.

 

A possible scenario: climate change disruption occurs (and enhances the cultural prestige of science). An emerging ‘ecological’ cosmological paradigm is strenthened. Asian religions and many indigenous will find this more conducive than the more anthropocentric  monotheistic religions with their idea of a ‘creator God’. 

 

3. Social change and upheaval. Massive social upheavals (e.g. war) have always allowed an outpouring of cultural creativity, often disrupting the established players and paradigms. Also, newly empowered groups (e.g. women, adolescents) create cultural change.

 

A likely scenario: the continuing empowerment of women and children/young people and changing family forms continues to challenge older-male-led, male-dominant religions, leading either to new religious forms or growth of ‘no religion’ depending how they respond.

 

A likely scenario: a politically multi-polar world legitimates global religious-cultural diversity and undermines universalizing religions and their ‘missions’ to convert the whole world.

 

A certain scenario: unknown disruptions lead to unpredictable religio-cultural changes!

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